Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket, the peer-to-peer prediction market built on Ethereum, after betting markets emerged predicting an early departure for President Prabowo Subianto. The ban reflects escalating government pressure on crypto platforms operating without explicit authorization in the archipelago.
Polymarket, operated by Polymarket Inc., runs on the Ethereum blockchain and allows users to trade binary outcome contracts tied to real-world events. The platform had facilitated positions on Indonesian political outcomes, drawing regulatory scrutiny from Jakarta authorities. The government moved to restrict access as the prediction markets gained traction among local users wagering on the president's tenure.
This action marks Indonesia's toughest stance yet on offshore prediction platforms. The country's crypto regulatory framework remains fragmented, with the Financial Services Authority (OJK) maintaining tight controls over digital asset trading. Polymarket operates without a local operating license, positioning it squarely in Jakarta's crosshairs.
The timing amplifies existing tensions between the Indonesian government and unregulated crypto infrastructure. Authorities have repeatedly warned citizens against using platforms that lack domestic oversight, citing consumer protection and capital flight concerns. Prediction markets occupy a regulatory gray zone globally, with most jurisdictions treating them with caution due to their potential for market manipulation and connections to political outcomes.
Polymarket itself has faced regulatory headwinds elsewhere. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigated the platform in 2024 for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange. The platform agreed to pay a fine and implement new geographic restrictions.
Indonesia's blockade limits ordinary users from accessing the platform but does not eliminate it entirely. Tech-savvy traders can circumvent restrictions using VPNs, though doing so violates local regulations. The ban signals Jakarta's intent to regulate prediction markets proactively rather than retroactively, setting a precedent that may influence other Southeast Asian governments wrestling with similar platforms.
The incident underscores the tension between decentralized finance infrastructure and state sovereignty. Polymarket's blockchain-based design offers resistance to traditional censorship, yet its operators remain vulnerable