TD Cowen's Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg told Bitcoin Magazine that a Democratic sweep of Congress would kill the CLARITY Act for two years and sour the political environment for crypto. Seiberg wrote that Democrats would likely investigate Trump's crypto entanglements, damaging crypto's standing in Washington.
The CLARITY Act passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on September 15. If it does not pass before the new Congress convenes on January 3, it dies and must be reintroduced.
Seiberg flagged Senate control as the bigger prize for crypto policy. A Democratic Senate majority could block Trump's nominees and pressure him to fill Democratic seats on the FDIC, SEC and CFTC. Senator Elizabeth Warren would chair the Banking Committee under Democratic control, while Representative Maxine Waters would take House Financial Services.
Seiberg sees room for populist bills such as interest rate caps and limits on bank buybacks under a split government, where Warren and Trump could find common ground on some issues.
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 on election day Tuesday afternoon, up from a $76,300 morning dip. Prediction markets on Kalshi give Democrats a 94% chance at the House and 74% at the Senate. Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a CLARITY negotiator, said the bill could pass during the lame-duck session before January, though she doubted a Democratic-controlled Congress would prioritize it afterward.
Crypto groups spent more than $200 million on the election cycle to avoid this outcome. The CFTC cleared equity perpetual futures for U.S. exchanges on Tuesday, moving forward without congressional action.