Metaplanet slashed its 2026 revenue forecast by 59% to ¥6.5 billion on November 13, down from ¥16 billion. Operating profit fell 74% to ¥3 billion from ¥11.4 billion.
The Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury firm blamed the cuts on its own depressed stock price. Metaplanet shares dropped 4.37% to ¥219 that day and have fallen 53.21% in 2026 so far.
The original forecast assumed Metaplanet could keep raising cash at late-2025 rates to buy more Bitcoin and expand its options-based Bitcoin Income business. That plan stalled once the company's market cap fell below its Bitcoin holdings. This 1x mNAV ratio matters because selling new shares below that level would dilute Bitcoin per share. Metaplanet paused equity raises, cutting both Bitcoin purchases and income business volume.
A ¥52 billion convertible bond issued in October will not fill the gap. Metaplanet will direct those proceeds to share buybacks first, leaving limited funds for Bitcoin or the income business.
Nine-month results through September showed revenue rose 30.5% to ¥5.9 billion and operating profit grew 26.5% to about ¥3.5 billion. But Bitcoin valuation losses and a third-quarter sale left a ¥27.2 billion net loss. The revised targets imply only about ¥600 million in fourth-quarter revenue versus nearly ¥2 billion per quarter through September.
Metaplanet says its Bitcoin-centered strategy remains unchanged. MSCI will remove Metaplanet from its Japan Small Cap Index and USA Index on November 30, following removal rules for Bitcoin treasuries. Funds tracking those benchmarks will need to sell their holdings.