Bitcoin price to get a macro boost as BofA says tariff refunds could cool inflation

Bank of America signals that tariff refunds processing through the US Treasury could create a macro tailwind for Bitcoin by cooling inflation. The US Customs and Border Protection has processed $35.46 billion in tariff refunds as of May 11, moving what was once a court hypothesis into active Treasury accounting.

The refund mechanism works as a deflationary force. When the government returns tariff revenue to importers and consumers, it reduces money supply pressure in the economy. Lower inflation expectations typically benefit hard assets like Bitcoin, which traders view as inflation hedges. BofA's framing elevates the tariff refund story beyond isolated trading chatter into macro analysis territory.

Traders now track the pace and scale of these refunds as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin's macro narrative. The $35.46 billion figure represents material capital flowing back into the economy. If refunds accelerate further, they could suppress consumer prices and ease Fed rate-cut expectations, potentially loosening monetary policy constraints that have weighed on risk assets.

Bitcoin's correlation with real rates and inflation expectations remains tight. A genuine cooldown in inflation via tariff refunds would reduce real yields and improve the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin compared to Treasury bills and bond funds. This addresses a structural headwind Bitcoin faced during the high-rate environment of 2022-2023.

The tariff refund trade gained traction after court rulings permitted the government to process returns on duties collected under previous administrations. What started as a niche legal arbitrage has morphed into a potential macroeconomic lever. BofA's attention signals institutional recognition that the scale and timing of these refunds matter for broader economic conditions.

Bitcoin traders should monitor Treasury refund data releases and Congressional action on tariff policy. Accelerating refunds combined with moderating inflation prints could reframe Bitcoin from a struggling risk asset into a portfolio hedge. The $35.46 billion already processed sets a baseline. The real story emerges if monthly refund rates climb substantially from here.