Bitwise Asset Management raised its 2036 base-case bitcoin price target to $1,599,766 from $1.3 million a year earlier. The forecast assumes a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from roughly $83,557 as of September 30, 2026. Bitwise's bear case is $130,686 and bull case is $3.67 million.

The base case rests on three pillars. Institutions will keep adding bitcoin to portfolios. New supply stays fixed on a predictable schedule. Rising government debt will push investors toward assets that cannot be printed.

Bitwise estimates institutions controlling about $147 trillion could allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin, meaning $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in potential purchases. The network issues about $14 billion in new coins per year, creating supply pressure. U.S. spot bitcoin ETPs hold about $108 billion. Banks and brokerages are building custody and trading services. A Federal Reserve capital proposal could ease bank custody rules if adopted, widening access for large institutions.

Bitcoin fell 53.4% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 to a June 30, 2026 low of $58,717. Bitwise calls that drawdown the shallowest in bitcoin's history. Prior cycle declines were 77%, 84%, and 86%.

Other analysts disagree on the cycle's strength. VanEck argues the current slump follows the historical halving pattern. Fidelity has pointed to a possible floor around November 2026 if past timing holds. NYDIG said a repeat of earlier bear markets could push the cycle low near $38,000 to $39,000.

Bitwise models 27.8% average volatility over the decade. Bitcoin's correlation with gold reached a record 0.58 in September 2026. Bitwise expects that relationship to deepen, positioning bitcoin as a store-of-value asset.

The report identifies three risks. Bitcoin's trading history is short, spanning from 2010 onward, so forecasts carry uncertainty. Regulation could stall despite recent advances. Quantum computing and AI-accelerated mathematical advances could threaten bitcoin's cryptography, requiring a major network upgrade.

Bitcoin's price was near $80,500 when the report was released.